After two droughts, India Meteorological Department predicts super monsoon this time

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India Meteorological Department (IMD), the country's official weatherman, had some good news for the parched and dusty season saying that monsoon would be "above normal" this year.

Director General (IMD), Laxman Singh Rathore, announced on Tuesday that rainfall would be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) assessed from 1951-2000.

Effectively, 94 cm rainfall can be expected this year, distributed fairly across the country, compared to the 89 cm average from 1951-2000.

After two successive years of drought, it bodes well for India where 47 per cent (or 157.35 mn hectares) land is used for agriculture and 26.3 crore farmers depend on it for their livelihood.

India's foodgrain production declined from 2013-14's record 265.04 mn tones to 252.02 mn tonnes in 2014-15 (July-June), due to poor monsoon. Radha Mohan Singh, Agriculture Minister, was quick to comment, "As per IMD forecast, definitely agriculture production will be better in 2016-17." He was speaking at a national kharif conference.

The sensex also jumped at the good news.

Equities soared for a second straight session on Tuesday, led by gains in auto stocks on the forecast of IMD's monsoon forecast. The benchmark BSE Sensex surged by 123 points to 25,145.59 with agriculture-linked stocks leading the race. Major gainers were Insecticides (India) at 16.17 per cent followed by Jain Irrigation Systems 6.13 per cent and Chambal Fertilisers 4.07 per cent.

Rathore, said, "There are 94 per cent chances of country receiving normal to above normal rainfall while there is only 1 per cent probability of deficient rainfall. The drought-hit region of Marathwada and Bundelkhand will receive good rainfall this year."

Due to poor monsoon in 2015-16 crop year, 10 states have declared drought. The Centre has sanctioned relief package of about Rs 10,000 crore. A train carrying 5 lakh litres water from Krishna river reached Latur on Tuesday.

However, Rathore said some pockets in the country may still go relatively-dry. "One of them would be north-east India, where slightly less than normal monsoon is expected. Also the south-east part of the peninsula like Tamil Nadu and adjoining Rayalseema districts, may get slightly less than normal rainfall," he said.

IMD scientist DS Pai said the El Nino conditions, which come with heating of the water in the Pacific, are weakening. It affected the monsoon last year and also resulted in warm winters.

After two droughts, India Meteorological Department predicts super monsoon this time
 
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