New Delhi: After nine years of rule, the UPA is set for a massive defeat. If polls were held today, the United Progressive Alliance will get a mere 136 Lok Sabha seats, according to a countrywide survey done by ABP News-Nilesen. The main Opposition NDA will garner 206 seats while others parties will get 167 seats.
Neither the United Progressive Alliance nor the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will get the magic numbers in general elections if it were to take place today. Voters are not in mood to see Congress-led UPA government back in power. In the 2009 general elections, Congress alone had won 209 seats.
Left parties will get 34 seats in election, said the survey. The NDA may try to form government but will need another 66 seats in their support.
Zonal performance:
UPA is winning 33 seats in East and 36 in North in comparison to NDA’s 49 and 67. In South UPA gets 36 seats against NDA’s 10 seats. The major players in southern states are the southern parties with 75 seats.
Modi’s effect is visible in western states. With 80 seats, the NDA is leading the zone. Congress will win 36 seats.
Vote Share:
UPA will garner 26% of votes, and NDA is getting 27% votes. The other parties will be the most voted parties in the country. A whooping 41% votes are spread among other parties while Left gets a meager 6% votes.
Overall, 31% of respondents are intending to vote for BJP, if the Lok Sabha elections are held now, whereas 20% are intending for INC. 74% of those who voted for INC during 2009 Lok Sabha elections, are still intending to vote for INC if Lok sabha elections are held now; 26% are moving away from INC, out of which 9% are intending to vote for BJP. Whereas for BJP, 90% will stick with them and only 2% intend to move away from BJP to INC.
Public want options and they are serious about it. Modi has good governance record and he has an effective leadership. BJP’s parliamentary board will decide the rest of thing, Ravishankar Prasad, BJP spokesperson told ABP News.
Sampling and Methodology:
The target respondent was male / female, 18 years & above.
Male : Female ratio (64:36)
Large scale quantitative study.
Nationwide Coverage across 152 Parliamentary Constituencies in 21 States/UTs of India. In each Parliamentary constituency, 2 Assembly Constituencies were sampled and a total 33408 people were interviewed.
All interviews were door to door interviews carried out in a face to face setting.
Interviews were conducted using largely a structured questionnaire.
The complete field work was carried out in the period, 1st May to 10th May 2013.
New Delhi: Giving the Bharatiya Janata Party an upper hand, 31 per cent respondents of the ABP News-Nielsen survey are intending to vote for the BJP, if the Lok Sabha elections are to be held now, whereas only 20% are intending to vote for the Congress.
These statistics do not predict a smooth sailing for Congress as 74% of those who voted for them during 2009 Lok Sabha elections, are still intending to give them a charge but a significant 26 per cent are drifting away. 9% of the 26 % are intending to vote for the BJP. The good news for BJP here is that 90% of respondents who voted for them in 2009 will stick with them this time around and only 2 % intend to move away to the Congress.
Taking everything into account, 10 per cent are of the opinion that current Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh has performed ‘very good’ while 27 per cent have given him a ‘good’ rating. Thirty three per cent feel he just has just been ‘an average PM’. 18 per cent have ranked him ‘poor’ while 9 % have called him ‘very poor’.
This figure could be either a breather or a setback for the Congress which is battling graft charges from all corners. 24 per cent of the respondents have rated their performance to be ‘good’ while 6 % feel they have performed ‘very well’. 33 per cent have termed them ‘average’. 21 per cent have called them ‘poor’. Ten per cent are of the opinion that they are ‘very poor’ in terms of governing the country.
Modi ahead of Rahul for PM post:
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi has again turned out to be the most preferred Prime Ministerial candidate in the country. 36 % have voted for Modi, whose clamour seems to be growing loud in the BJP. The BJP on Sunday appointed party general secretary Amit Shah, considered close to Modi, as incharge of electorally crucial Uttar Pradesh. Shah's appointment as incharge of UP, which sends 80 MPs to Lok Sabha, has increased the buzz over Modi's rise in the BJP and his possible projection as Prime Ministerial candidate.
13 % have chosen Rahul Gandhi, who recently was elevated as the Congress Vice-President. 12 % are sticking with Manmohan Singh. Giving the BSP a mild boost, 9 % feel Mayawati should be given the top job. UPA chairperson and Congress President Sonia Gandhi has the support of 8 % while BJP veteran LK Advani has only 6 % of respondents who have banked on him.
If there were to be a non-UPA, non-NDA, Third front government, 14 % of respondents would be choosing Mulayam as their PM candidate, 14 % feel Mayawati deserved the top job, 6 % are going with Jayalalithaa, 3 % each for Naveen Patnaik, Buddhadeb Bhattacharya & Prakash Karat.
UPA-II ineffective in tackling terrorism:
Terrorism has been an issue which the UPA- II has been ineffective in handling as 56 per cent of the respondents feel they haven’t take the right steps to secure the citizens. However, 31 % do think that it has done enough to tackle the menace.
Politicians across parties do not want a strong Lokpal Bill?
If the BJP thought that the Congress fears to bring in the Lokpal and Lokayukta Bill, then it should take these statistics seriously as well. A huge 38 per cent of the respondents feel politicians across parties do not want a strong Lokpal Bill. 22 per cent are of the opinion that the UPA government does not want a strong Lokpal Bill while only 12 per cent feel that the Bill in its present form is weak and will not do any good even if it is implemented.
Sampling and Methodology for ABP News —The Nielsen Survey:
Courstey:: ABP News (formerly Star News) – Breaking news from India, world, cricket, politics, business and entertainment
Neither the United Progressive Alliance nor the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will get the magic numbers in general elections if it were to take place today. Voters are not in mood to see Congress-led UPA government back in power. In the 2009 general elections, Congress alone had won 209 seats.
Left parties will get 34 seats in election, said the survey. The NDA may try to form government but will need another 66 seats in their support.
Zonal performance:
UPA is winning 33 seats in East and 36 in North in comparison to NDA’s 49 and 67. In South UPA gets 36 seats against NDA’s 10 seats. The major players in southern states are the southern parties with 75 seats.
Modi’s effect is visible in western states. With 80 seats, the NDA is leading the zone. Congress will win 36 seats.
Vote Share:
UPA will garner 26% of votes, and NDA is getting 27% votes. The other parties will be the most voted parties in the country. A whooping 41% votes are spread among other parties while Left gets a meager 6% votes.
Overall, 31% of respondents are intending to vote for BJP, if the Lok Sabha elections are held now, whereas 20% are intending for INC. 74% of those who voted for INC during 2009 Lok Sabha elections, are still intending to vote for INC if Lok sabha elections are held now; 26% are moving away from INC, out of which 9% are intending to vote for BJP. Whereas for BJP, 90% will stick with them and only 2% intend to move away from BJP to INC.
Public want options and they are serious about it. Modi has good governance record and he has an effective leadership. BJP’s parliamentary board will decide the rest of thing, Ravishankar Prasad, BJP spokesperson told ABP News.
Sampling and Methodology:
The target respondent was male / female, 18 years & above.
Male : Female ratio (64:36)
Large scale quantitative study.
Nationwide Coverage across 152 Parliamentary Constituencies in 21 States/UTs of India. In each Parliamentary constituency, 2 Assembly Constituencies were sampled and a total 33408 people were interviewed.
All interviews were door to door interviews carried out in a face to face setting.
Interviews were conducted using largely a structured questionnaire.
The complete field work was carried out in the period, 1st May to 10th May 2013.
New Delhi: Giving the Bharatiya Janata Party an upper hand, 31 per cent respondents of the ABP News-Nielsen survey are intending to vote for the BJP, if the Lok Sabha elections are to be held now, whereas only 20% are intending to vote for the Congress.
These statistics do not predict a smooth sailing for Congress as 74% of those who voted for them during 2009 Lok Sabha elections, are still intending to give them a charge but a significant 26 per cent are drifting away. 9% of the 26 % are intending to vote for the BJP. The good news for BJP here is that 90% of respondents who voted for them in 2009 will stick with them this time around and only 2 % intend to move away to the Congress.
Taking everything into account, 10 per cent are of the opinion that current Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh has performed ‘very good’ while 27 per cent have given him a ‘good’ rating. Thirty three per cent feel he just has just been ‘an average PM’. 18 per cent have ranked him ‘poor’ while 9 % have called him ‘very poor’.
This figure could be either a breather or a setback for the Congress which is battling graft charges from all corners. 24 per cent of the respondents have rated their performance to be ‘good’ while 6 % feel they have performed ‘very well’. 33 per cent have termed them ‘average’. 21 per cent have called them ‘poor’. Ten per cent are of the opinion that they are ‘very poor’ in terms of governing the country.
Modi ahead of Rahul for PM post:
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi has again turned out to be the most preferred Prime Ministerial candidate in the country. 36 % have voted for Modi, whose clamour seems to be growing loud in the BJP. The BJP on Sunday appointed party general secretary Amit Shah, considered close to Modi, as incharge of electorally crucial Uttar Pradesh. Shah's appointment as incharge of UP, which sends 80 MPs to Lok Sabha, has increased the buzz over Modi's rise in the BJP and his possible projection as Prime Ministerial candidate.
13 % have chosen Rahul Gandhi, who recently was elevated as the Congress Vice-President. 12 % are sticking with Manmohan Singh. Giving the BSP a mild boost, 9 % feel Mayawati should be given the top job. UPA chairperson and Congress President Sonia Gandhi has the support of 8 % while BJP veteran LK Advani has only 6 % of respondents who have banked on him.
If there were to be a non-UPA, non-NDA, Third front government, 14 % of respondents would be choosing Mulayam as their PM candidate, 14 % feel Mayawati deserved the top job, 6 % are going with Jayalalithaa, 3 % each for Naveen Patnaik, Buddhadeb Bhattacharya & Prakash Karat.
UPA-II ineffective in tackling terrorism:
Terrorism has been an issue which the UPA- II has been ineffective in handling as 56 per cent of the respondents feel they haven’t take the right steps to secure the citizens. However, 31 % do think that it has done enough to tackle the menace.
Politicians across parties do not want a strong Lokpal Bill?
If the BJP thought that the Congress fears to bring in the Lokpal and Lokayukta Bill, then it should take these statistics seriously as well. A huge 38 per cent of the respondents feel politicians across parties do not want a strong Lokpal Bill. 22 per cent are of the opinion that the UPA government does not want a strong Lokpal Bill while only 12 per cent feel that the Bill in its present form is weak and will not do any good even if it is implemented.
Sampling and Methodology for ABP News —The Nielsen Survey:
- Survey predicts BJP unseating Congress at Centre
- The target respondent was male / female, 18 years & above.
Courstey:: ABP News (formerly Star News) – Breaking news from India, world, cricket, politics, business and entertainment
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